Chart of the Day · OCT 8, 2026

AI Adoption Rate Among US Businesses

23.8% of US businesses now use AI to make what they sell. The other 76.2% will not shop for a model; they will buy through a channel.

Mode VC ·

The signal

23.8% of US firms used AI in the latest two-week survey, up from 17.3% 10 months earlier. 76.2% still did not.

Share of US businesses using AI to produce goods or services in the last two weeks, and share expecting to in six months. Census BTOS, biweekly, weighted, 16 Nov 2025 – 6 Sept 2026.

Using AI nowExpect to within 6 months
Sources: US Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey · Gallup, AI at work survey, 26 Jan – 24 Mar 2026MODE VC

Dates are the end of each two-week reference period. Cycles before mid-Nov 2025 were not collected here. The 50% year is a straight line from the last 10 months, not a forecast.

Show the data (44 rows)
SeriesDateValueNote
Using AI now2025-11-1617.3%
Using AI now2025-11-3017.2%
Using AI now2025-12-1417.8%
Using AI now2025-12-2817.7%
Using AI now2026-01-1118.2%
Using AI now2026-01-2518.9%
Using AI now2026-02-0817.5%
Using AI now2026-02-2218.2%
Using AI now2026-03-0818.9%
Using AI now2026-03-2219.1%
Using AI now2026-04-0519.8%
Using AI now2026-04-1919.8%
Using AI now2026-05-0319.5%
Using AI now2026-05-1720.6%
Using AI now2026-05-3120.6%
Using AI now2026-06-1420.6%
Using AI now2026-06-2821.7%
Using AI now2026-07-1221.5%
Using AI now2026-07-2621.8%
Using AI now2026-08-0922.4%
Using AI now2026-08-2323.2%
Using AI now2026-09-0623.8%
Expect to in 6 months2025-11-1621.1%
Expect to in 6 months2025-11-3020.9%
Expect to in 6 months2025-12-1421.3%
Expect to in 6 months2025-12-2822.4%
Expect to in 6 months2026-01-1122.1%
Expect to in 6 months2026-01-2522.1%
Expect to in 6 months2026-02-0821%
Expect to in 6 months2026-02-2221.8%
Expect to in 6 months2026-03-0822.3%
Expect to in 6 months2026-03-2222.5%
Expect to in 6 months2026-04-0523%
Expect to in 6 months2026-04-1922.8%
Expect to in 6 months2026-05-0322.7%
Expect to in 6 months2026-05-1723.7%
Expect to in 6 months2026-05-3123.9%
Expect to in 6 months2026-06-1423.7%
Expect to in 6 months2026-06-2824.5%
Expect to in 6 months2026-07-1224.3%
Expect to in 6 months2026-07-2625.9%
Expect to in 6 months2026-08-0925.9%
Expect to in 6 months2026-08-2327.3%
Expect to in 6 months2026-09-0627.6%

One block for every 1% of US firms

Lit = firms using AI to make what they sell (Census BTOS, cycle to 6 Sept 2026). Switch to the six-month expectation.

The Mode read

AI adoption has two sides: people and companies. The St. Louis Fed tracks people, and most working-age Americans now use generative AI outside work. The Census Bureau tracks companies every two weeks, and its newest cycle is a record.

Firm use rose 6.5 points in 10 months, to 23.8%. Firms expect 27.6% within six months. A straight line from the last 10 months reaches half of all firms only in 2030.

That is the open field. Most of the remaining 76.2% are small and mid-sized businesses. They will not compare models. They will adopt AI the way they adopted payroll and payments: through a channel they already trust, such as an accountant, a vertical software tool, a distributor or a point-of-sale system. The companies that own those channels will capture the adoption.

The model race is crowded. The race for the channel has barely started.

What we would back: Companies that own a channel into small and mid-sized businesses and use AI to sell more through it.