Chart of the Day · SEP 12, 2026

Claude vs ChatGPT: Which Ranks Higher on the Leaderboard?

Claude's best model rates 40 points above OpenAI's best on the Arena board. The lead has changed hands 15 times since 2024, usually by a few points.

Mode VC ·

The signal

On 11 Sept 2026, Claude's best model rates 40 points above OpenAI's and 16 above Gemini's. Against OpenAI's best it would win about 56% of blind votes.

Highest Arena rating among each lab's models on the text board (overall), 9 Jan 2024 – 11 Sept 2026. Arena points.

Claude (Anthropic)OpenAI (ChatGPT models)Gemini (Google)
Sources: Arena leaderboard dataset (lmarena-ai, CC BY 4.0) · Official launch posts (launch feed, captured 7 Oct 2026)MODE VC

"ChatGPT" here means OpenAI's models as rated on Arena, not the ChatGPT app. The dataset has no Claude row before 7 Mar 2024. Ratings are relative to the board on each date, so compare lines on the same date, not levels across years. Many lead changes were by a few points, inside the confidence intervals. Win rate uses Arena's 400-point logistic scale.

Show the data (687 rows)
SeriesDateValueNote
Claude (Anthropic)2024-03-071233claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-03-131247claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-03-261253claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-03-271254claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-031256claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-091256claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-101256claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-111256claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-131255claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-181252claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-191253claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-221252claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-04-261251claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-05-011251claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-05-081248claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-05-151246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-05-161246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-05-191246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-05-201246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-05-271245claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-021246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-061246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-111246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-171246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-211246claude-3-opus-20240229
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-231269claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-261271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-06-291271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-07-061272claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-07-081272claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-07-161271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-07-221272claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-07-251272claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-07-301272claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-07-311271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-011271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-051271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-061271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-131271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-221271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-231271claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-271270claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-08-281270claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-09-041270claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-09-151269claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-09-171269claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-09-271269claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-10-071268claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-10-151268claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-10-231268claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620
Claude (Anthropic)2024-10-281286claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-11-041283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-11-121283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-11-131283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-11-201283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-11-211282claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-11-221282claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-12-011283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-12-051283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-12-101283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-12-151283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-12-181283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-12-221283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2024-12-301283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-01-051284claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-01-151284claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-01-191284claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-01-211283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-01-221283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-01-241283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-01-281284claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-031283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-051283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-061283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-091283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-111283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-141284claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-171284claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-211283claude-3-5-sonnet-20241022
Claude (Anthropic)2025-02-271313claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-031309claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-111304claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-151300claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-171300claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-201302claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-251304claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-261305claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-03-301306claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-04-051305claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-04-081305claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-04-091303claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-04-161303claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-04-231301claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-05-051301claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-05-061301claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-05-111300claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-05-191297claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-05-201297claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-05-221296claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-06-011366claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-06-031366claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-06-051366claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-06-111373claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-06-171373claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-06-181373claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-06-241373claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-07-011372claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-07-071370claude-opus-4-20250514
Claude (Anthropic)2025-07-151370claude-opus-4-20250514-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-07-171371claude-opus-4-20250514-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-07-251370claude-opus-4-20250514-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-07-281375claude-opus-4-20250514-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-011375claude-opus-4-20250514-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-041374claude-opus-4-20250514-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-071437claude-opus-4-1-20250805
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-141423claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-181421claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-211421claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-271417claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-08-281417claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-09-081422claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-09-171420claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-09-181420claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-09-301420claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-10-011420claude-opus-4-1-20250805-thinking-16k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-10-031431claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-10-071427claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-10-161423claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-10-171423claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-051426claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-061426claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-091427claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-161428claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-171428claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-181428claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-201427claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-11-261445claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-011442claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-041444claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-051445claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-081445claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-111446claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-151444claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-161443claude-opus-4-5-20251101-thinking-32k
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-181443claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-191444claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-211444claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-231446claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2025-12-301445claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2026-01-091443claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2026-01-271445claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2026-01-291444claude-opus-4-5-20251101
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-061501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-091503claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-101503claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-111504claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-161504claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-171503claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-191503claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-201503claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-211503claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-221503claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-241502claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-251502claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-02-261502claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-031504claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-041503claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-051503claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-061502claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-111502claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-161499claude-opus-4-6
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-181499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-191499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-201499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-261501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-03-311501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-021500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-071499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-091500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-101501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-141499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-171500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-201499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-221500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-231500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-271499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-281499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-291500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-04-301501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-011500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-061500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-071501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-121500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-141500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-181500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-191500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-05-271499claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-06-031500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-06-041500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-06-051501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-06-101501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-06-161501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-06-251500claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-021501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-101501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-121501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-141501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-161501claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-201502claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-211503claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-261506claude-opus-5-high
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-271512claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-07-301512claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-021507claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-031507claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-061506claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-101508claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-111507claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-121508claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-191505claude-opus-5-high
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-211504claude-opus-5-high
Claude (Anthropic)2026-08-271505claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-09-011505claude-opus-5-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-09-021514claude-fable-5.1-max
Claude (Anthropic)2026-09-111510claude-fable-5.1-max
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-01-091190gpt-4-0314
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-01-181191gpt-4-0314
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-01-251189gpt-4-0314
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-02-021253gpt-4-0125-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-02-151254gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-03-051251gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-03-071251gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-03-131251gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-03-261251gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-03-271251gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-031253gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-091254gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-101254gpt-4-1106-preview
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-111261gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-131260gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-181258gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-191259gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-221259gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-04-261257gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-05-011259gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-05-081258gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-05-151289gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-05-161287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-05-191287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-05-201287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-05-271282gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-021282gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-061282gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-111282gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-171283gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-211283gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-231283gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-261287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-06-291287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-07-061287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-07-081287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-07-161287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-07-221287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-07-251287gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-07-301286gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-07-311286gpt-4o-2024-05-13
ChatGPT models (OpenAI)2024-08-011286gpt-4o-2024-05-13
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Gemini (Google)2025-08-141469gemini-2.5-pro
Gemini (Google)2025-08-181469gemini-2.5-pro
Gemini (Google)2025-08-211468gemini-2.5-pro
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Gemini (Google)2026-02-101496gemini-3.1-pro-preview
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Gemini (Google)2026-09-021495gemini-3.8-flash-high
Gemini (Google)2026-09-111494gemini-3.8-flash-high

The Mode read

In the first three days of September, Anthropic shipped Claude Fable 5.1, Google shipped Gemini 3.8 Flash and OpenAI shipped GPT-6 Astra. On the 11 Sept 2026 Arena snapshot, claude-fable-5.1-max is #1, and OpenAI's newest model sits at #61. So, Claude vs ChatGPT: which is better, and for how long?

Today Claude leads OpenAI's best by 40 points, outside the confidence intervals, which means a win in about 56% of blind votes. Gemini sits between them. Over the longer run, OpenAI led the head-to-head on 71% of days since Claude joined the board on 7 Mar 2024. The lead changed hands 15 times, 13 of them by fewer than 10 points, and Claude has held it since 6 Feb 2026.

A user who always chased the top model would have switched assistants 15 times, often for a lead of a few points. Each switch has a cost, and it is what the user has put in: chat history, memory, projects and shared team spaces. A rating lead is a few points and a few months. Accumulated context is a switching cost that grows every week.

The leaderboard flips. The chat history stays put.

What we would back: Products that get more useful with every file, memory and workflow a user adds to them.