Investors whose smallest check is under $250K say they can lead a round 39% of the time. At $1M and up, 91% do.
We looked at 1,242 early-stage venture firms in the Mode VC Investor Atlas that report both the size of the checks they write and whether they lead rounds. The smallest check a firm writes predicts its answer far better than the stage it invests at. For founders raising a small first round, that means the money is easier to find than the lead.
The gap holds inside every stage. At seed: 38% of small-check firms lead, 91% of $1M+ firms.
Each cell is the share that say they can lead, with the firm count underneath. Darker green means a higher rate. Tap or focus a cell for the exact numbers and the 95% interval.
Inspect underlying data table
| Stage | Smallest check | Lead | Firms | Rate | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-seed | Under $250K | 95 | 256 | 37.1% | 31.4% to 43.2% |
| Pre-seed | $250K to $1M | 297 | 354 | 83.9% | 79.7% to 87.4% |
| Pre-seed | $1M and up | 96 | 101 | 95% | 88.9% to 97.9% |
| Seed | Under $250K | 100 | 264 | 37.9% | 32.2% to 43.9% |
| Seed | $250K to $1M | 368 | 461 | 79.8% | 75.9% to 83.2% |
| Seed | $1M and up | 262 | 287 | 91.3% | 87.5% to 94% |
| Series A | Under $250K | 54 | 124 | 43.5% | 35.1% to 52.3% |
| Series A | $250K to $1M | 188 | 239 | 78.7% | 73% to 83.4% |
| Series A | $1M and up | 285 | 314 | 90.8% | 87.1% to 93.5% |
| Series B | Under $250K | 17 | 38 | 44.7% | 30.1% to 60.3% |
| Series B | $250K to $1M | 47 | 64 | 73.4% | 61.5% to 82.7% |
| Series B | $1M and up | 227 | 249 | 91.2% | 87% to 94.1% |
What this means for founders
Firms that start at small checks mostly join rounds that someone else sets. Of the 317 firms whose smallest check is under $250K, 123 of 317 say they can or mostly lead. Among the 421 firms whose smallest check is $1M or more, 381 of 421 do.
Stage is a weaker signal. Every stage sits between 67.0% and 77.9%, because firms that list pre-seed or seed also write larger checks at later stages. When you build an investor list for a small round, filter by the smallest check a firm writes and by its lead preference, not by the stage label alone.
The pattern also holds when we keep only the 339 profiles the firm itself confirmed: Under $250K 37% (30 of 81), $250K to $1M 82.4% (155 of 188), $1M and up 91.4% (64 of 70).
Methodology
- Data. The Mode VC Investor Atlas, 3,650 early-stage venture firms, mostly in the United States and Canada, snapshot of 2026-10-15. Study built 2026-10-20 from the published atlas file with
scripts/atlas/study_lead_gap.mjs. - Lead preference. Each firm profile states one of: can lead, mostly lead, or mostly follow. We count "can lead" and "mostly lead" together as "say they can lead". 1,880 firms state no preference and are left out.
- Smallest check. Profiles list check-size bands (under $25K, $25K to $100K, up to $30M and above). We use the lowest band a firm lists. The two top bands are merged because only 5 firms start at $30M or more. Where a profile gave no band, the atlas uses a range stated on the firm's own website.
- Population. 1,242 firms report both fields. All rates are "firms that say they can lead" divided by "firms in the group that report both fields". Every chart shows n.
- Uncertainty. 95% Wilson intervals are in each data table and the summary CSV. The smallest groups (under $25K, n=32; $25K to $100K, n=81) have wide intervals; the grouped result (under $250K, n=317) does not depend on them.
Known gaps
- Self-reported. Lead preference and check bands are what the firm or its public profile says. They are not measured from deals. A firm that says it can lead may rarely do so.
- Coverage. Only 34% of atlas firms report both fields. 1,404 firms come from Mode VC's activity ledger, which never records lead preference, so none of them are in the rates. Firms that fill in profiles may differ from firms that do not.
- Confirmed profiles. 344 of 3,650 profiles (9.4%) are confirmed by the firm. The result holds in that subset (see above).
- Geography. The atlas is weighted to the United States (3,318 firms list it) and Canada (842). It is not a census of global venture firms.
- Sector tags. We do not report results by sector. The source taxonomy has an "AI / Data" tag that 1 of 2,246 structured profiles use, although many firms describe AI in their thesis text. A sector cut would undercount AI investors.
Cite and reuse
Cite as: Mode VC, "The Lead Gap: Small Checks Rarely Lead", Investor Atlas data as of 2026-10-15, https://modevc.com/research/lead-gap-2026. The CSVs are free to reuse with that credit (CC BY 4.0). Each firm row links to its atlas profile.